Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

710
FXUS63 KBIS 250548
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1248 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, followed by well
  above normal on Sunday.

- Strong south to southeast winds on Saturday, gusting as high
  as 40 mph.

- Medium to high chances of rain showers statewide at times
  Saturday through Monday, with low to medium chances for
  thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Little updates needed at this time. Clouds may linger across the
south tonight, with clearing skies in the north. Some patchy fog
is still possible, although location remains in line with the
previous forecast. Overall little changes to the forecast
needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

No major changes are needed for this update. Light rain has mostly
ended across our forecast area, and cloud cover is beginning to
rapidly diminish from the north. If the clearing reaches along and
south of I-94 by sunrise, model guidance favors patchy fog
development across southwest and possibly into south central North
Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 706 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Radar imagery shows scattered light rain showers in northwest North
Dakota early this evening, although webcams throughout the area
suggest most of it is virga. A slight chance of sprinkles was added
to the forecast to account for this. Much farther south, light rain
continues along the South Dakota border and up towards Jamestown,
but a steady diminishing trend from north to south is anticipated
through the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Current surface analysis places low around the Four Corners
region, with broad high over the Prairie Provinces into the
Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places compact low over
western Montana, with west/southwest flow over our area. A few
waves moving through the flow are resulting in some showers
which are remaining over the southern parts of our area.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, light rain
showers will continue to move through southern portions of the
area before gradually dissipating this evening. With that said,
these should remain light. Thereafter, a quiet night is
expected.

On Friday, upper ridge passes over the area resulting in quiet
and dry conditions and seasonably mild temperatures.

As we go through Friday night into Saturday, upper low off the
California coast moves onshore, and quickly pushes into the
Great Basin with our upper flow shifting southwesterly. Surface
low deepens to our west, which will combine with a high over
the upper Midwest to bring gusty south to southeasterly winds to
our area, which will also allow Gulf moisture to stream up into
our area. Expect some rain showers to develop on Saturday
(~20-40% chance), lingering into the evening.

On Sunday, surface low sets up to the lee of the Rockies,
pushing east/northeast late day into the overnight, while upper
low shifts northeast. This sets up the scenario with enhanced
deep layer shear over the area with increasing instability, but
the fly in the ointment may be a developing cap. CSU-MLP remains
consistent with showing some severe possibility, notably over
the far southern portions of our area. Will have to keep an eye
on this for late day Sunday/Sunday evening. As we go through the
night Sunday into Monday, medium to high rain chances spread
across the area as surface low lifts northeast.

Thereafter, west to northwest flow with a variety of waves
moving through from time to time is on tap through mid-week,
which will keep low to medium chances for showers in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Patchy fog may develop across southwest and possibly south
central North Dakota tonight into Friday morning, especially if
mid to high clouds clear out by sunrise. Confidence was not high
enough to include at any TAF sites at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds through tonight will become northeasterly around
5-10 kts in central North Dakota on Friday, and southeasterly
around 10-15 kts in the west.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Anglin